Dear Friends, Colleagues and Clients:
“What a Difference a Day Can Make; it is no longer appropriate to wait until tomorrow as tomorrow brings another set of problems which requires a full day of more of action”.
While some people continue to focus on “Hope” and the potential relief from monetary easing [i] and the “Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (“CARES”) Act [ii], Farrell Advisory Inc. continues to emphasize the need for management to immediately evaluate and refocus their business due to the enormous uncertainty [iii] surrounding the Coronavirus, which has been described as “one of the most dangerous and disruptive disease outbreaks since WWI” [iv]. Questions remain open about the ability of the US and global markets to recover quickly from this economic shock that has ground many parts of the economy to a halt and that may lead into a deep and prolonged recession, that will be substantially worse than the 9/11 terrorist shock[v], perhaps more due to the greater fear of the unknown and behavioral adjustments (“Social Distancing”) that is driving the current markets.
While most companies have dealt with the Day One priorities (e.g., employee and family safety, communications, business continuity, remote working and home schooling), I wanted to share with you some interesting thoughts about what to do next, “Day 2 to 90 Actions”. These thoughts will vary by sector [vi] given some sectors have been hit far harder than others, and the effectiveness of the CARES which appears will be signed into law in substantially similar form over the next few days.
Whether triggered internally or by the U.S. or global marketplace dynamics, corporate distressed situations can be managed. Boards and senior management are responsible for Triage (based on best likely, and not known outcomes of this economic shock) and the prompt allocation of limited resources, be they management, operational or financial in nature, to fix their problems.
Securing and maintaining liquidity will be now be a critical part of crisis management. Crisis management has four main elements (i) Transparent (Board) Leadership; (ii) Stabilization Actions; (iii) Planning (Asking and Doing); and (iv) Efficient Execution.
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Key decisions must be made early and actioned to successful closure. Do we have the right leadership in key areas which can quickly achieve trust and deliver results? Are we effectively capitalized for the short to medium term? Do we understand our (fixed vs variable) cost structure and change levers? Do we have contingency scenarios in place (e.g., rent abatement, deferred vendor payments, and RIFs) in case different outcomes arise over different time periods? Do we have a laser attention on the cash conversion cycle? How can we utilize tax planning to preserve cash? Can we manage without certain procedures and reporting so that we can manage the level of the workforce? Have we and our management team been trained in crisis communication with outside entities (e.g., press, stakeholders, vendors, remote working employees etc.)? Can employees remain focused and work effectively remotely and is there any risks of losing confidential information? Has a Material Adverse Event occurred which could impact a contract? Can you win contracts and trust without meeting people (i.e., customers, lenders)? Where should our business be focused on and our we nimble enough to refocus our business?
Stressed situations can be used as a catalyst for positive change if actioned quickly and managed properly. Given these present circumstances and many unknowns, management must be highly focused on cash management and preservation, developing a new strategic plan and operating model to achieve (i) the right level of efficiencies and de-risked operating model; and (ii) drive to a new cash culture. The potential significant benefits of addressing weaknesses early and how we might help include:
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To further help your thought process I have set out as an Appendices the following topics:
If you are considering making a distressed acquisition, I would recommend reading the presentation “Due Diligence On A Distressed Company” ,which is set out on Farrell Advisory’s website, as these types of acquisitions have many difference nuisances. Transaction risks will now be significantly increased due to potential restrictions placed on due diligence (i.e., restrictions on ability to physically meet management and go on site, ability to understand forecasts) and less favorable lending terms for buyers.
It is also important for senior management to seek approval for its new strategy from not just the Board but also from other stakeholders like management, key shareholders and financers in advance, while still maintaining confidentiality. Without the buy in of all key stakeholders, new strategies of companies are unlikely to address all the blind spots or be implemented efficiently. A well-thought out strategy, with very specific criteria, needs to be clearly set so that management is focused on the right sectors, geographies, products/services and other skills and resources that the business needs, not necessarily wants, to bring to the table to implement decisive and cash and profitable change.
We very much look forward to speaking with you, learning more about your businesses, and explaining more about Farrell Advisory and how we can help you protect and enhance shareholder value in these tremendously difficult times.
Best regards,
It may be appropriate to consider renegotiating the borrowing facilities (e.g., $, length and type of debt) and terms.
Whether triggered internally or by the U.S. or global marketplace dynamics, corporate distressed situations can be managed. Boards and senior management are responsible for the early detection and remediation of structural issues, be they operational or financial in nature. Key decisions must be made early and actioned to successful closure, even if a crisis is not present. Do we have the right leadership in key areas? Are we effectively capitalized? Do we understand our cost structure and change levers? Do we have a crisis plan? Do we have a laser attention on the cash conversion cycle? Have we and our management team been trained in crisis communication with outside entities (e.g., press, stakeholders, vendors etc.)?
The following findings summarize how distressed situations can be used as a catalyst for positive changes to create shareholder value in companies if identified quickly and managed properly and before formal restructuring negotiations are started.
With all economic crises and credit cycle turns, you have a combination of higher volatility and tighter credit conditions. So what should the board of directors (“Board”), together with management, proactively do to protect shareholder value and reduce risks in their operations?
A major responsibility of the Board is to ensure the viability and sustainability of the business. Boards must not be complacent and ensure they continually receive relevant, accurate and timely information so that they can apply their “judgement” to taking proactive and decisive actions. In stressed conditions, the Board’s risks increase due to the possibility of their company entering the “zone of insolvency” which basically means the company cannot meet its ordinary debt obligations as they become due. At this stage, the Boards primary fiduciary duties shifts from shareholders to creditors and the legal protections afforded to directors under the business “judgement” rule become less clear.
Business trouble can arise quickly and for a variety of reasons. Companies may suffer from missed market expectations with non-optimal products/services portfolios, uncompetitive cost base, reduced operating profit or severe cash flow problems. Whether triggered internally or by marketplace dynamics, distressed situations can be managed and more easily the earlier the situation is identified. The Board should be asking and doing the following:
Before any new strategies are implemented, we recommend that senior management performs an assessment of the company, organization, infrastructure and service/product offerings to see where the strengths and core (profitable) activities of the company are. Management should also evaluate the cost benefits of reorganization. This self-assessment will require management to look ‘out of the box’ and be more proactive in finding new efficiencies and opportunities to preserve profitability and cash. Examples of opportunities to increase profitability and cash include:
CFOs will also have to step up. CFOs will not only be expected to deliver a finance organization that gets the numbers right (“Reactive Participant”) but to partner with CEOs, Boards and Shareholders in shaping the company’s infrastructure and strategy and provide the right tools to monitor and forecast (e.g., 13-week cash flow statement) the operations of the company (“Proactive Leader”). CFO will need to become more efficient in identifying and reacting to trends that unfavorably impact future levels of revenue, profitability and cash flows. In addition to considering cost reductions, CFOs should consider extracting efficiency savings from their business systems, eliminating unnecessary procedures, bolstering internal controls, focusing on the core profitable business and developing billing and cash collection procedures to maximize and improve cash flow.
Alignment of Strategies and Improvement Plans with stakeholders. Design of organization (including equity/ debt structure), management structure/ operating/ budget plans and Improvement Plans (teams, allocation of responsibilities, new leadership team and incentive/ retention plans) and Reporting models with effective corporate governance and tax strategy.
Alignment of Strategies and Improvement Plans with stakeholders. Design of organization (including equity/debt structure), management structure/ operating/ budget plans and Improvement Plans (teams, allocation of responsibilities, new leadership team and incentive/retention plans) and Reporting models with effective corporate governance and tax strategy.
Cash management should become a core competency and managed by a specialist; this goes beyond the 13-week cash flow forecasting. Orderly ordering, spend and standardization of accounts payable; careful management of inventory; and improving accounts receivable for cash collection opportunities culture should be careful monitored by KPI’s and incentivized by realignment of management incentives (e.g., salesmen for cash collections rather than on orders).
Financial restructuring should encompass the honest and intense appraisal of valuation and the debt/equity structure but also the operating processes and value delivery culture that leads to reduction in debt and cash flow.
Managing and regular communication with energy of “right first time” changes in vision, culture, structure and goals and then performance against goals are fundamental to success and trust which stakeholders to organizations. Changes and perceived uncertainties will be quickly judged and rebelled against via irrational actions if deemed poor leading to loss of employees and customers.
Crisis cash management requires deep insights to the reporting and forecasting process that is fundamental to a successful turnaround. Accurate and cleaned up data, active and near real-time communication of key performance indicators via dashboards is necessary to make informed course-corrections to strengthen and enhance strategies and actions.
To quickly boost profitability and cash flow, streamline operations and maximize returns, evaluate all aspects of a business to determine the appropriateness of cost allotted to each area and the ROI of each expense decision for the company. We recommend a ‘zero’ based budgeting approach to costs, customers/ products, locations and procedures/ tasks.
Authored by:
David Farrell, President, Farrell Advisory Inc.
Background on Farrell Advisory Inc.
1621 35th Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20007 U.S.A.
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David@FarrellAdvisory.com
www.farrelladvisory.com
Farrell Advisory Inc. provides highly customized Corporate Finance services to business owners, boards of private equity firms, corporations and banks with regards to promptly and efficiently helping companies deliver shareholder value through:
David Farrell has over twenty years of experience in Reengineering/Restructuring and Transaction Advisory Services (buy-side and sell-side due diligence, carve-outs) either as a consultant (Partner and Managing Director) at Big 4 (KPMG), international consulting practices (FTI Consulting, Farrell Advisory) and national accounting firms (Cherry Bekaert, a Baker Tilly network firm) or as principal (CFO or Strategic roles) at European listed businesses, covering both the strategic as well as the transactional side of the business, with deep knowledge of the U.S., European and emerging markets. Mr. Farrell earned a B.Sc. in Economics and Accountancy from Loughborough University in the United Kingdom. He is a Chartered Accountant (“ACA”) in England and Wales and has obtained the Corporate Finance (“CF”) qualification from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”).
Disclaimer
This document contains general information, may be based on authorities that are subject to change, and is not a substitute for professional advice or services. This document does not constitute tax, consulting, accounting, investment, legal or other professional advice, and you should consult a qualified professional advisor before taking any action based on the information herein. Farrell Advisory Inc is not responsible for any loss resulting from or relating to reliance on this document by any person.
March 27th, 2020
[i] The Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) cut the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points on March 3 and another 100 basis points on March 15th, 2020, lowering the target rate to a 0-0.25% range. The FOMC directed the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to begin asset purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities to total at least $700 billion. The Federal Reserves has now pledged to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (including commercial mortgages) — starting with purchases of $75 billion and $50 billion per day, respectively. As of March 25 (latest data reported), the Fed balance sheet sits at $5.2 trillion. That is a $1.5 trillion increase since last September, when the Fed began increasing its repo operations to help calm the bank lending markets, already under some stress even before the virus hit.
[ii] On March 27th, 2020 President Trump signed the stimulus bill of estimated $2.2 trillion to provide relief to individuals, families, small business and industries mainly in 2020; this compares to the much smaller $787 billion stimulus package (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009) which was focused over 2 years.
[iii] Even if in the best-case scenario, the most acute health impacts of this crisis are overcome in the next few months, its economic and social consequences will need a long-term response.
[iv] Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and President Emeritus of Harvard University, March 2020.
[v] The current Coronavirus crisis has generated a sudden economic stop that is affecting both the demand and supply sides globally and that has affected the entire world at the same time through multiple channels: (i) first and foremost, the health emergency, which represents a shock to already fragile health systems having to cope with the pandemic itself; (ii) the immediate economic impact that is leaving workers and businesses without paychecks and revenues due to both social distancing policies in their communities as well as due to the general global slowdown; and (iii) the longer term macro-economic fragility of many developing countries governments and businesses. Unlike the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08 (“GFC”), countries and businesses are entering this crisis with high levels of debt. (S&P Global Ratings said that companies, government and households increased the combined debt load by 50% to $178 trillion as of June 2018 in the 10 years following GFC. One area of concern is corporate debt especially on the lower end of the scale and the amount of leverage loans with “covenant lite” terms.) We are also seeing two other phenomena that may be problematic for many developing countries (i) a strong drop in the price of oil; and (ii) the devaluation of their currencies with respect to the US dollar. If the GFC was about putting money in the bank’s coffers, the current crisis is about getting money quickly to suppliers of goods, hospitals and to people on the streets that have been quarantined out of their jobs.
[vi] Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research indicated that while there will be a surge in healthcare consumption, other areas of consumer spending are forecast to decline, from 15% for education services to as much as 85% for sports and entertaining and 90% for casino gambling and package tours. Manufacturing is expected to decline by 20%, partly driven by closure of automobile manufacturing plants and supply-chain disruption from China and fall in exports. Homebuilding and business structures investment is expected to decline by 25%.